This post is a response to a question posed in its complete format: “Do you think more and more progressive liberal voters will leave Twitter and go to other sites where their views will be more respected?”

Being on Xitter right now is like being outdoors at a campground that’s become a free-for-all and sitting in front of a fire, watching a massive log slowly burn itself into ash.

Nothing is stopping anyone from cross-posting to any or all of the competition. At this point, there’s no reason not to while waiting for the log to crumble into dust. Xitter still has a massive database of postings and a long enough history to be helpful on some levels for research.

Knowing which of the alternatives will emerge as the front-runner is still early in the game, and it could very well be the case that all three (Mastodon — https://mastodon.social/@, Threads — https://www.threads.net, and BlueSky — https://bsky.app/) will establish comfortable niches for themselves. There may emerge reasons for choosing only one, but it’s too soon to do that now.

This phenomenon is an example of how socializing on a virtual scale robs us of experiences that are common IRL. For instance, it’s been less than one year since I predicted Xitter would die within five years. I received a lot of mockery for it then. Less than six months ago, when it was announced that Xitter had lost 40% of its value, I posted that it was tanking faster than I thought it would and made a softer prediction about its data being sold off in less than five years. I received a lot of mockery from Elonia’s fanbois for that. A few days ago, it was announced that Xitter is now worth only 25% of its purchase value. It’s tanking faster than I expected. Elonia’s doing a marvellous job of teaching the little people how much contempt the rich psychopaths among us have toward their pawns.

(To be clear, not all the rich are as contemptuous, but they are obnoxious because they are captains of industry and de facto leaders in society. They should all be like Nick Hanauher and banging a drum for positive changes for humanity. That’s the least that can be expected from them. If they’re not doing that, they are callously egomaniacal for a myopic and self-serving regard toward the benefits they enjoy and take for granted. They’re also quite stupid for failing to apprehend how they would be much better off if they supported dignified living for the little people.)

This is one of those cases in which I am not only happy to be way off on my prediction, but I can also boast about it, and I have no idea who those people were while I’m sure I blocked a lot of them. If this were IRL, I’d be enjoying a lot of gloating while downing several beers at a bar that were owed to me by people I’d have made bets with.

Eventually — and sooner rather than later, the people who continue to use Xitter exclusively will begin to wonder if their experience is worth the effort to log into it, and that will be the day the Xitting dies.

If you’re posting on such sites to build up top of mind, there’s no reason not to cross-post. That way, you can see what kind of attention each gets you, and that will let you know who to focus on and with targeted messaging that can be most effective for your goals.

I’m generic in that respect and don’t have a specific target or strategy for sales or what you have in mind, so my approach is just “put my shit out there and see what happens.”

There appear to be developing differences between the alternatives. While Xitter is emerging as the haven for lunatics, there are still a lot of progressive voices there that seem to be there while cross-posting on other platforms. Robert Reich, for instance, appears to be on all three.

People more focused on a specific community to engage with will find it tough to know where best to put their eggs right now, particularly since all three platforms are still establishing themselves.